John,
I don't know the specific theory you are referring to but there are very
similar contemporary models. To begin with, anything related to James
Lovelock's recent writings, which has got more air-time recently (he was famed
for the gaia hypothesis in the '70s). There are two articles on the EIANZ
Ecology website that I would recommend reading (see below), including a recent
YouTube presentation on the steady state economy. It looks at the relationship
between human and natural capital - which seem similar to what you recall.
As you indicate, these theories are all very fundamental to the current
situation we find ourselves in regarding climate change. It is still amazing
however, how much natural capital we invest in technology to reverse problems
that are exacerbated due to loss of biodiversity. With EIANZ Ecology we are
continually pressing the point that biodiversity management (including
reversing biodiversity loss) is a critical part of the solution. Perhaps the
Deep Ecologists will win out in the end - Lovelock's theories were shunned in
the '70s and now considered mainstream (his works were done as a NASA scientist
working on Mars research). Lovelock thinks time's up for us monkeys. He's been
right once before...
Here are a couple of starting points:
http://eianzecology.blogspot.com/2008/09/gaia-hypothesis-and-climate-change.html
http://eianzecology.blogspot.com/2007/09/ecological-macroeconomics.html
Regards,
Simon.
> From:
> To: ;
> Subject: RE: [Birding-Aus] RFI Wikipedia page
> Date: Wed, 6 May 2009 14:48:03 +1000
>
> John,
>
> You are probably referring to "Olduvai Theory"
> (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olduvai_theory) where industrial civilisation
> has a life-expectancy of 100 years (due to expire in 2030).
>
> Alternatively you could be referring to Malthusian Catastrophe
> (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_catastrophe) which is probably
> slightly more rigorous, mathematically.
>
> Failing that, Wikipedia has a page on Human Extinction
> (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_extinction) that lists these and other
> "theories" - either mathematically rigorous or crackpot, and everything in
> between.
>
> To my mind these theories are a little simplistic. I think there are rather
> more variables to human society than can be reliably modelled using the
> proceeding two theories, but that's just me...
>
> Paul Dodd
> Docklands, Victoria
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From:
> On Behalf Of John Leonard
> Sent: Wednesday, 6 May 2009 10:46 AM
> To: Birding-aus
> Subject: [Birding-Aus] RFI Wikipedia page
>
> Hi all
>
> Can you help, a few months ago I was reading a Wikipedia page that
> described a mathematical model that soemone constrcuted in the 1960s
> which showed that humanity could not persist in a technological phase
> of civilisation for long because the build-up of pollution caused by
> the technology would ruin the ecosystem (proved correct since by
> C02-caused global warming). The predictions it made for the maximum
> population for long-term survival of the species made Paul Ehrlich
> look like a starry-eyed optimist.
>
> Unfortunately I didn't bookmark this page, and no amount of searching
> will find it again. Can anyone remember what this model is called, or
> has anyone seen this Wikipedia page?
>
> cheers
>
> John
>
>
>
> --
> John Leonard
> Canberra
> Australia
> www.jleonard.net
>
> "I rejoice that there are owls." Thoreau
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