John,
You are probably referring to "Olduvai Theory"
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olduvai_theory) where industrial civilisation
has a life-expectancy of 100 years (due to expire in 2030).
Alternatively you could be referring to Malthusian Catastrophe
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_catastrophe) which is probably
slightly more rigorous, mathematically.
Failing that, Wikipedia has a page on Human Extinction
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_extinction) that lists these and other
"theories" - either mathematically rigorous or crackpot, and everything in
between.
To my mind these theories are a little simplistic. I think there are rather
more variables to human society than can be reliably modelled using the
proceeding two theories, but that's just me...
Paul Dodd
Docklands, Victoria
-----Original Message-----
From:
On Behalf Of John Leonard
Sent: Wednesday, 6 May 2009 10:46 AM
To: Birding-aus
Subject: RFI Wikipedia page
Hi all
Can you help, a few months ago I was reading a Wikipedia page that
described a mathematical model that soemone constrcuted in the 1960s
which showed that humanity could not persist in a technological phase
of civilisation for long because the build-up of pollution caused by
the technology would ruin the ecosystem (proved correct since by
C02-caused global warming). The predictions it made for the maximum
population for long-term survival of the species made Paul Ehrlich
look like a starry-eyed optimist.
Unfortunately I didn't bookmark this page, and no amount of searching
will find it again. Can anyone remember what this model is called, or
has anyone seen this Wikipedia page?
cheers
John
--
John Leonard
Canberra
Australia
www.jleonard.net
"I rejoice that there are owls." Thoreau
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