I also like the "Modified Dolby System".
Team Score = Team's Total / Average of Past Winning Scores x100
I will try and track down the results (past and present) from the
regional twitchathon events and organise a national result.
I think "Average Winning Score" isn't the best norm.
(a) It doesn't reflect trends very well. If the winning total has been
climbing as the locals get more sophisticated, the average might be
meaningful for a decade ago, not today.
(b) In a state where someone named (say) Dooley either does or doesn't
compete in any given year, with winning results changing yearly from 220+ to
170+, the average is a meaningless figure somewhere between those two
"norms". Having seen some thon statistics recently this appears to be a
reasonable situation.
(c) You might get the same result from good weather / bad weather years.
I note there are plenty of scientists on this list so they probably know
more and better statistics than me, but I'd propose a percentile norm.
Median would not address either (a) or (b) or (c) above - it would probably
be similar to the average for (a) and would be randomly in one camp or the
other for (b) and (c).
Assuming that trends are upward, let's go for a high percentile mark.
Using the 100th percentile (the best score ever) has merit but that assumes
that the historical record in every state has never been burdened with an
outlier - one year of tick-happy burglars. (All current state
record-holders please forgive and forget this apparent but utterly
hypothetical aspersion.)
So I'd suggest 75th percentile or 90th percentile. 75th percentile would
make us all look good. 90th percentile would best reflect a rising trend.
Any thoughts? Tim, perhaps you could apply these measures in parallel to
your hypothetical historical national thons and publish the outcome. We
could all vote for whichever norm makes our own result look best 8^)
On consideration we also need to allow for the variation in the results...
The winner is the team which gets the most standard deviations above the
norm for his state?
=================================
mark(at)markroberts.id.au 0404 50 99 24
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Russell Woodford
Learning Technologies Coordinator
Sacred Heart College Geelong
http://web.shc.melb.catholic.edu.au/music/auralonline.html
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