Re: A wager ... cowardly exit by Dean

[Penn Gwynne <>]

G'day Andrew, bird deaths caused by an unnatural event such as being snared by a longline or snared in a tree due to being trapped by a legband are NOT a NATURAL event and therefore will not appear in the databases of those that snare. How can they appear? so the data being used is very flawed and dare I say lopsided? an informed guess~timate at best is made. That's my beef, how incorrect the assumed death rates are from banding.

 

Many factors cause death!!!!!!

 

Andrew I'll write you a little short story, just for you this morning, at coffee break, and I wish for you, to shoot holes in it? if you can? it is fiction but try proving that. It will be a light hearted piece about Penguins

 ...

 

In a previous life I was involved with health and safety and databases and company innumeracy. It's surprising how numbers get a small change to fit a need? and the constraints of a financial budget. Why? I didn't know wild birds go shopping? When dealing with wild birds do they understand pounds shillings and pence? so why lump them together. It only proves thee stupidity of those perfoming a study that needs bird banding involved.

 

Apologies as I thought I had written:

"If Gene pools are weakened by only 1 per cent per year who knows what bird knowledge is lost eh?"

 

PLEASE NOTE I've removed thee hysterical -- emotional -- and over reactive language I've been accused of making by Dean.

Andrew Taylor <> wrote:

 

On Sun, May 11, 2003 at 06:47:22PM -0700,

 

Penn Gwynne wrote: "Gene pools are weakened if only 1 per cent per year are murdered and who knows what bird knowledge is lost eh?"

 

AT replied:
Natural adult mortality rates for bird species can exceed 50%/year. If the first year of life is included mortality rates can exceed 80%. For example, Hugh Ford's Ecology of Birds cites a study of Superb Blue
Wren in northern NSW by Ray Nias which found adult mortality rates
near 50%. Its unlikely any bird species has a natural mortality rate as low as 1%. Effectively it implies an average life span of 100 years.

Long-lived species such as Albatrosses might have natural adult mortality rates as low as 3%. The natural low adult mortality in Albatrosses is crucial to understanding the impact of longlining. The marking of wild birds provides such life history information and is hence important in species conservation.

The most important consideration avoiding harmful impacts on genetic
variation is effective population size. Generally the required population
size is sufficiently low that other risks to the species are a larger concer n.

Andrew (who hasn't ever banded a bird but does get annoyed at innumeracy)

 

Then Abba Cuss Andrew where do you get your data from in the first place if the data is flawed by a miniscule figure then?

 

Thinks? a nice fairy tale story for AT, hmm "Grey Nursing Sharks caring for fairy penguins" that should do it.

 

Back later JAG de Whag

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