black-swan events

["David Rosalky" <>]

There is a book published a few years ago called "Black Swan" and written by
Nassim Nicholas Taleb.   It is about the impact of totally unpredictable
events on strategic planning and forecasting.  Not a great book, IMHO, but
contains some interesting ideas.

David R

-----Original Message-----
From: Des Clark-Walker  
Sent: Thursday, 17 January 2013 3:51 PM
To: Canberrabirds List
Subject: black-swan events

In recent reading of Nature I came across use of the term "black-swan
event'.  Curious to know the meaning of this term and being a Western
Australian I interrogated Google. There is a voluminous literature on
black-swan theory and events, going back to the time when all swans were
supposed to be white.  In essence, a black-swan event is a surprise, the
event has a major effect and in hindsight it could have been predicted.
Attack on The World Trade Center is an example.

I hope Geoffrey Dabb can dream up a suitable illustration?

Des Clark-Walker

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