canberrabirds

black-swan events

To: "'Des Clark-Walker'" <>, "'Canberrabirds List'" <>
Subject: black-swan events
From: "Philip Veerman" <>
Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2013 16:07:49 +1100
Yes from expected white to unexpected black was a change but then I wonder
what would constitute a "platypus event".

Philip

-----Original Message-----
From: Des Clark-Walker  
Sent: Thursday, 17 January 2013 3:51 PM
To: Canberrabirds List
Subject: black-swan events


In recent reading of Nature I came across use of the term "black-swan  
event'.  Curious to know the meaning of this term and being a Western  
Australian
I interrogated Google. There is a voluminous literature on black-swan  
theory and events, going back to the time when all swans were  
supposed to be white.  In essence,
a black-swan event is a surprise, the event has a major effect and in  
hindsight it could have been predicted. Attack on The World Trade  
Center is an example.

I hope Geoffrey Dabb can dream up a suitable illustration?

Des Clark-Walker


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