canberrabirds

Estimating numbers

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Subject: Estimating numbers
From: "Geoffrey Dabb" <>
Date: Thu, 18 Mar 2010 11:19:56 +1100

Very interesting.  Estimates mentioned to me ranged from a wary ‘0 – not starlings’ to ‘200-300’.  It might or might not be helpful if I told you that each of the first 4 coloured sections represents 50 birds:

 

numbers.jpg

 

I would think that very few people would know, intuitively, what 200 birds ‘looks like’.  Barbara P mentioned the semi-counting method of counting 10  -  then counting the number of tens.  That depends on having the flock in view for long enough.  John Rawsthorne – an old sheep-counter like a few others – said if it looks like 100 it’s probably twice that number.  That is, in  a way, knowing what 200 ‘looks like’  -  it looks like 100.  That kind of knowledge comes from knowing at some stage the actual number of estimated quantities, so perhaps the sheep counters have an advantage.

 

As a matter of interest there are 436 birds in each of these pictures:

 

starlings 3.jpg

 

starlings 2_4041.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

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