Geoffrey
My understanding is that “the dry” is driven by the Indian
Ocean Dipole (more than El Nino), something recently explored by the UNSW Climate Change Research Centre. They do not definitely
link this to climate change but some degree of linkage is clearly possible. See
http://www.science.unsw.edu.au/news/indian-ocean-drought/
.
Stephen
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dr Stephen Mugford
Managing Director
QQSR
Box 12,
Gungahlin, ACT 2912
Ph: +61 2 6242 1008 [02 6242 1008]
Mob: + 61 411 466640 [0411 466640]
From: Geoffrey Dabb [
Sent: Wednesday, 2 December 2009 10:25 AM
To:
Subject: [canberrabirds] From our political correspondent
Was it my imagination, or were rules
established for this chatline? I remember something about no commercial
advertising, and I have a glimmer of recollection about ‘no politics’ or
something to that effect. Not only is my memory slipping, but I can’t
find the rules anywhere.
Anyway, I can’t help raising a matter that
might seem a bit political.
I see that we are heading into a period of
political debate when a sharper edge will be put on the question ‘just
how serious is global warming?’ I see that Mr Abbott is moving to the
position that the planet ‘deserves the benefit of the doubt’ and ‘something’
should be done. I foresee that a future election might turn on just what
people think GW is responsible for. Indeed, the election might depend on
whether voting takes place on a warmish day.
As I understand it, a connection has not
been definitely established between global warming and the current prolonged
dry period in south-eastern Australia, although many people believe there is
such a connection. Such a belief could be another electoral factor, so no
doubt we shall hear more about it.
Getting back to the birds, ‘prolonged
rainfall deficiency’ has been pointed to as a cause in the crash in numbers of
woodland birds in SE Aust. I was reading a speech by Kelvin Thomson, MHR
for Wills, at Monash University, 23 November, in which all these issues were
run together. He said -
<< In central Victoria’s woodlands
the number of Kookaburras has declined by 30% in
just four years. The number of Koalas in
Queensland and New South Wales has
declined dramatically, and it is possible
that there are now fewer than 50,000 Koalas
left in the wild. The same study that found
the 30% decline in Kookaburras also
found a 30% or greater decline in Robins,
and even greater declines for various
Honeyeaters, Flycatchers and Kingfishers.
The study noted that eucalypt
flowering had declined significantly over the past 12
years of drought, and detected virtually no
bird breeding in the latest survey periods.
Some 30% of Australia’s bird species are
now regarded as threatened, and
internationally the number of birds listed
as critically endangered continues to rise.>>
In short, the looming question is: if
you like birds, should you vote for Kevin Rudd? Of course, each of us
will answer that for ourselves. Not everyone sees things in the same way,
and nor should they. Scuffles over political differences at the coming
Christmas Party are possible but unlikely, and would be very non-COG.
Simple birdwatchers though we are, we
should not overlook the divisiveness of this issue for some people. In
the Monash speech, Mr Thomson went on, after talking about the missing birds:
<< First, whatever the political
pressures we’re under, and no doubt they’re significant,
we have a duty to take a science-based,
evidence-based approach. I note that Senator
Nick Minchin recently said on Four Corners
that climate change, “for the extreme
left, provides the opportunity to do what
they have always wanted to do, which is to
sort of de-industrialise the Western world.
The collapse of communism was a disaster
for the left and really, they embraced
environment as their new religion”. >>
Dear me.
