yfhes

["Philip Veerman" <>]

Hi Chris & All,

You could very easily be right, however that is a big "if" in your last paragraph. We are a long way short of being able to say "This, ...is the first time that this has been shown."

 

I'd suggest it has not been shown at all (it may be slightly hinted at). The numbers of these birds have varied a lot over the years. It is a long bow to draw to suggest that the impacts of the December 2001 & January 2003 fires should first appear in April 2007. You only need to look at the long-term graph in the GBS report (which is the only local every year data we have), even though the GBS methods have some problems for this species. 

 

That the migration out in April has usually had vastly greater numbers than the migration in each spring and this pattern is consistent every year, suggests to me that breeding occurs in huge numbers every year and that low years the previous year are compensated for very quickly and there is little on flow of large or small numbers from one year to the next, let alone four years down the track.

 

I personally have not noticed lower than usual numbers this year (although I have not been out looking).

 

Philip