One indication of likelihood can be found in such online databases as
Eremaea and Birdpedia - of course they depend on how diligent people are in
entering observations, and there is a tendency I feel for rarities to be
somewhat over-recorded compared to common species, but they give at least a
base to work from. Last time I checked Birdpedia gave some form of seasonal
abundance as well which Eremaea did not (and I apologise if that has now
changed) but of course even that is variable with weather conditions - but
then if sightings were guaranteed where would be the fun?
On 30/07/07, Rosemary Royle <> wrote:
>
> I think something like this would be wonderful - the only problem is that
> it might make things just a bit too easy?? (Sort of joke)
>
> It is perfectly true that understanding the general abundance of species
> and their degree of localisation is not at all well covered by the guide
> books. We did a huge amount of homework before our trip to Australia last
> year, but still were not really sure where we were likely to see a number of
> the species on our list. Our saving grace was that we spent 3 months in the
> field which allowed us to pick up some species simply by being in the right
> kind of environment for enough time.
>
> It is always informative after a trip to look at all the species which
> were only seen once - some of these will be a as result of a specific effort
> e.g. Eungella Honeyeater, but others are just sheer luck and field time.
> Those latter species are the ones which are hard to rely on finding,
> especially in a limited time period. Actually knowing in advance that they
> will be hard to find woudl be very helpful, and pointers as to the best
> place to find them even better.
>
> However, in Australia, as I understand it, a bird can be hard to find some
> years and easy in others - we did not find a Brown Songlark and Phil Maher
> said he hadn't seem them for several years - after the rains this year I
> expect they will be all over the place!
>
> Rosemary Royle
>
>
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