Hi, all -
I am copying the following message from the seabird listserver to
BIRDING-AUS as it has implications for the study and conservation management
of Australian birds (The erratic ENSO cycle appears to have been a major
influence on the evolution of the Australian biota, and lack of
understanding of this has probably exacerbated the impact of pastoral
development on the conservation status of many native animals):
>1997 EL NINO MAY BE SEVERE: FIELD RESEARCH CAUTION
>Scripps News (18 VI 97 is reporting that the U.S. National Oceanographic
>and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center now is
>suggesting that the upcoming El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event may
>be a big one, approaching the 1982-1983 event in scope.
>Since a major ENSO can affect rainfall, currents, temperature and winds
>across most continents and oceans, researchers conducting single-year
>studies should be aware that this may well not be a 'normal' year. Those
>conducting long-term studies or working as part of a network may wish to
>set up additional measurements to 'capture' this event more fully. Those
>monitoring diseases should consider that rodent and arthropod populations
>may respond to drought or increased rainfall conditions characteristic of
>ENSO conditions in their region.
>A description of some typical effects can be found at
>Additional documentation of the 1982 ENSO can be found in Glynn PW 1990.
>Global ecological consequences of the 1982-83 El Nino-Soputhern
>oscillation, Elsevier, New York.
>For more information
>Climate Prediction Center <http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov/> (see especially
>Climate Diagnostics Bulletin, click analysis and monitoring) provides all
>sorts of interesting ENSO climate data in near 'real time'.
>University of Alaska Anchorage
Birds Australia Conservation & Liaison,
Australian Bird Research Centre,
415 Riversdale Road,
Hawthorn East, VIC 3123, Australia.
Tel: +61 3 9882 2622. Fax: +61 3 9882 2677.
Web Homepage: http://www.vicnet.net.au/~birdsaus