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To: Birding Aus <>
From: Laurie Knight <>
Date: Thu, 30 Oct 2014 21:28:45 +1000
  Content preview:  G?day I attended a lunchtime seminar presented by Peter 
Fuller
    (UQ) today on the ongoing decline of the number of migratory waders reaching
    Australia. Peter is part of a group studying wader dynamics over the last
    couple of decades. While the abundance of non-magratory shorebirds has been
    stable, most transhemispherical migrants are declining at annual rates of
    4 to 9%. Curlew Sandpipers are one of the hardest hit species, with their
    numbers down 84% over 25 years. [...] 
 
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Subject: Notes from a research seminar on the decimation of
        migratory shorebird species on the East Asian Flyway
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G=92day

I attended a lunchtime seminar presented by Peter Fuller (UQ) today on the =
ongoing decline of the number of migratory waders reaching Australia.

Peter is part of a group studying wader dynamics over the last couple of de=
cades.  While the abundance of non-magratory shorebirds has been stable, mo=
st transhemispherical migrants are declining at annual rates of 4 to 9%.  C=
urlew Sandpipers are one of the hardest hit species, with their numbers dow=
n 84% over 25 years.

The common factor in the decline for most species is the loss of habitat in=
 the Yellow sea (basically two thirds in recent decades (there is a recent =
article on the subject at http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.a=
spx?id=3D20141027000048&cid=3D1105 ).  Peter noted that 90% of the variance=
 in the rate of decline of the various species studies was linked to the de=
pendence of those species on the Yellow Sea as a transit point for their mi=
grations.

About half of the inter-tidal habitat loss was due to land use changes (15%=
 aquaculture, 25% agriculture, 10% industrial).  The other 50% was due to c=
oastal erosion - a combination of sea level rise and reduced sediment depos=
ition (due to the presence of dams etc).

The long term survival of the impacted migratory species may depend on how =
they can adjust their migrations to get around the loss of their transit po=
ints.  Peter noted that there had been changes in Ruff migration routes in =
response to habitat issues.

Two research questions that occurred to me were:
1. How are the size and age structure of the overwintering populations of t=
he migratory species changing?  =

2. Are the patterns of vagrancy changing? Do they presage possible changes =
in migratory behaviour?

Ultimately, there is the fundamental question of evolutionary plasticity - =
will the shorebirds be able to change enough to survive the changes in the =
world?

Regards, Laurie.
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