CO2 emission (which is the cause of an unknown percentage of the cause of
global warming - prove a particular number if you don't agree) is not going
to go up much. We passed Peak Oil (for crude) two years ago and we are just
starting the down slope of all liquids. Peak natural gas will be before 2015
and transportation difficulties make it difficult to produce much more.
Peak Coal alone is some way off (2040?), but, while a ton of coal produces
more CO2 than a ton of oil, currently the CO2 produced from oil is far
greater than CO2 from coal (16 billion tons as again 10 billion from
memory).
Tar sands oil production may inch up to 5 million barrels of oil a day but
American natural gas shortages make the an absolute and unlikely peak. Oil
shale is a non-starter and ethanol and bio-diesel use more energy than they
consume.
With the sole exception of the Vietnamese war (maybe not even here - Vietnam
produces oil) , every war since 1918 has been about oil to some degree
(would Bush have invaded Iraq if it's major export was broccoli?) and the
future will follow this. Wars for oil could well become nuclear and make
some bird species extinct, but wildlife, as we know, is flourishing around
Chernobyl. Overfishing of the sea is a major danger to sea birds but most
will struggle through.
There are many who believe that peak oil will cause a massive human die off
(I judge it probable but not certain) and as population drops in line with
oil supply (it matched it pretty well on the way up) may wiel see us back to
about 1 billion by 2100.
As Limits to Growth showed, predictions, especially about the future, are a
mugs game. However it seems clear that peak oil will hit air travel hard and
these 8000 and 9000 life lists will become impossible.
Tim Murphy
-----Original Message-----
From:
Behalf Of michael norris
Sent: Sunday, 6 May 2007 3:26 PM
To: birding-aus
Subject: Fw: [Birding-Aus] The Biggest Life List
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