Hot air and OBP's

Subject: Hot air and OBP's
From: Andrew Taylor <>
Date: Wed, 6 Sep 2006 14:01:37 +1000
On Wed, Sep 06, 2006 at 01:54:55PM +1100, Evan Beaver wrote:
> "The mortality rate predicted is around 1 bird per annum (depending on
> turbine avoidance rate), not one bird per 1000 years."

No. The relevant report is here

It models the combined effect of 23 wind farms (9 existing & 14 proposed)
and doesn't give an individual mortality estimate for Bald Hills.
If I've done my arithmetic right from the table on page 30 the model
estimates a OBP death every 50-100 years at Bald Hills.  But note the
authors believe the modelling probably over-estimates mortality.

The model does estimate approaching 1 OBP death/year from all 23 wind
farms combined.  A subset of 4 windfarms in western Victoria account
for most of the risk.

There is  a famous saying, "all models are wrong but some are useful".
I'm not at all sure this model is useful, because of the poverty of
the data available.



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