Rapid upslope shifts in New Guinean birds illustrate strong distribution

To: Ian May <>
Subject: Rapid upslope shifts in New Guinean birds illustrate strong distributional responses of tropical montane species to global warming
From: colin trainor <>
Date: Sat, 22 Mar 2014 17:50:25 +0930
The Supplementary material with bird lists is available here:

Most of the species are resident/sedentary birds with small territories - some 
of the frugivores and nectarivores/raptors are capable of moving widely.

Seasonality - the study area is very close to the Equator (4-6 degrees South), 
I suspect that there is zero seasonal climate diffs (ie no season/aseasonal) 
and very limited rainfall seasonality (ie everwet, or close to).

> Date: Sat, 22 Mar 2014 18:55:03 +1100
> From: 
> To: 
> CC: 
> Subject: Re: [Birding-Aus] Rapid upslope shifts in New Guinean birds 
> illustrate strong distributional responses of tropical montane species to 
> global warming
> The study does not appear to consider seasonal changes that are more 
> likely than small distribution movements due to climate shifts.
> colin trainor wrote:
> >An interesting recent study that re-samples sites first surveyed by Jared 
> >Diamond 40+yrs ago.... to look at changes in elevation use by montane birds 
> >in New Guinea region..
> >
> >Colin
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >Abstract
> >Temperate-zone species have responded to warming temperatures by 
> >shifting their distributions poleward and upslope. Thermal
> >                              tolerance data suggests that tropical 
> >species may respond to warming temperatures even more strongly than 
> >temperate-zone species,
> >                              but this prediction has yet to be tested. 
> >We addressed this data gap by conducting resurveys to measure 
> >distributional responses
> >                              to temperature increases in the 
> >elevational limits of the avifaunas of two geographically and faunally 
> >independent New Guinean
> >                              mountains, Mt. Karimui and Karkar Island, 
> >47 and 44 y after they were originally surveyed. Although species 
> >richness is roughly
> >                              five times greater on mainland Mt. Karimui
> > than oceanic Karkar Island, distributional shifts at both sites were 
> >similar: upslope
> >                              shifts averaged 113 m (Mt. Karimui) and 
> >152 m (Karkar Island) for upper limits and 95 m (Mt. Karimui) and 123 m 
> >(Karkar Island)
> >                              for lower limits. We incorporated these 
> >results into a metaanalysis to compare distributional responses of 
> >tropical species
> >                              with those of temperate-zone species, 
> >finding that average upslope shifts in tropical montane species match 
> >local temperature
> >                              increases significantly more closely than 
> >in temperate-zone montane species. That tropical species appear to be 
> >strong responders
> >                              has global conservation implications and 
> >provides empirical support to hitherto untested models that predict 
> >widespread extinctions
> >                              in upper-elevation tropical endemics with 
> >small ranges.
> >                           
> >                                       
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