This article is freely available
http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0006825
Re-Shuffling of Species with Climate Disruption: A No-Analog Future
for California Birds?
Abstract Top
By facilitating independent shifts in species' distributions, climate
disruption may result in the rapid development of novel species
assemblages that challenge the capacity of species to co-exist and
adapt. We used a multivariate approach borrowed from paleoecology to
quantify the potential change in California terrestrial breeding bird
communities based on current and future species-distribution models
for 60 focal species. Projections of future no-analog communities
based on two climate models and two species-distribution-model
algorithms indicate that by 2070 over half of California could be
occupied by novel assemblages of bird species, implying the potential
for dramatic community reshuffling and altered patterns of species
interactions. The expected percentage of no-analog bird communities
was dependent on the community scale examined, but consistent
geographic patterns indicated several locations that are particularly
likely to host novel bird communities in the future. These no-analog
areas did not always coincide with areas of greatest projected species
turnover. Efforts to conserve and manage biodiversity could be
substantially improved by considering not just future changes in the
distribution of individual species, but including the potential for
unprecedented changes in community composition and unanticipated
consequences of novel species assemblages.
===============================
www.birding-aus.org
birding-aus.blogspot.com
To unsubscribe from this mailing list,
send the message:
unsubscribe
(in the body of the message, with no Subject line)
to:
===============================
|
