All
Murray's post made me wonder if anybody had gone back to the tour guide in
question and check the veracity of the sighting and help them with the
possibilities and assist with directing information on where such a sighting
should be reported to ensure that there is further investigation, the locale
registered etc? (Murray and I corresponded separately and he said he would
do this.) Correct or wrong, it all adds to our knowledge of what we hope is
a rare, but not extinct, group of birds.
Just because things are highly unlikely does not mean that they can never
happen. I agree with Murray that we should be sceptical and go back to the
people reporting the sighting to seek the appropriate evidence to support a
decision or to help them identify and eliminate the possibilities. (Before
it gets trotted out, there has been previous discussion of Occam's razor on
this forum - "all other things being equal, the simplest solution is the
best" - but it is important to remember that it is not the only solution.)
Think about 50 years ago - if someone had claimed a Noisy Scrub bird at Two
Peoples Bay in 1958, the claim would have been dismissed. But, as we now
know, although the species was considered extinct at that time, it would
have been quite possible. So, while not quite fitting the Sherlock
Holmes/Conan Doyle maxim of "When you have eliminated the impossible,
whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.", (I hope) we have
not yet eliminated coxeni as impossible....which is why the thread is headed
unlikely sightings, not impossible sightings. Let us hope it remains that
way.
Cheers
Tom Wilson
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