birding-aus

Unlikely sightings

To: "birding-aus" <>
Subject: Unlikely sightings
From: "Tom and Mandy Wilson" <>
Date: Mon, 3 Nov 2008 21:54:31 +1100
All
Murray's post made me wonder if anybody had gone back to the tour guide in question and check the veracity of the sighting and help them with the possibilities and assist with directing information on where such a sighting should be reported to ensure that there is further investigation, the locale registered etc? (Murray and I corresponded separately and he said he would do this.) Correct or wrong, it all adds to our knowledge of what we hope is a rare, but not extinct, group of birds.

Just because things are highly unlikely does not mean that they can never happen. I agree with Murray that we should be sceptical and go back to the people reporting the sighting to seek the appropriate evidence to support a decision or to help them identify and eliminate the possibilities. (Before it gets trotted out, there has been previous discussion of Occam's razor on this forum - "all other things being equal, the simplest solution is the best" - but it is important to remember that it is not the only solution.)

Think about 50 years ago - if someone had claimed a Noisy Scrub bird at Two Peoples Bay in 1958, the claim would have been dismissed. But, as we now know, although the species was considered extinct at that time, it would have been quite possible. So, while not quite fitting the Sherlock Holmes/Conan Doyle maxim of "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.", (I hope) we have not yet eliminated coxeni as impossible....which is why the thread is headed unlikely sightings, not impossible sightings. Let us hope it remains that way.

Cheers
Tom Wilson





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