On Wed, Feb 22, 2006 at 09:41:47PM +1100, Ricki Coughlan wrote:
> Unfortunately the Bush Administration recently declined to list this
> race of the Red Knot as endangered so that a couple of big fishing
> companies could continue to clean up at the expense of the
> environment. All the research currently indicates that this race will
> be extinct by 2010.
This is one of those predictions that I wish a betting market was open on
A web search turns up plenty of pages repeating similar claim, few have
a cite, but the modelling seems to come from a 2004 paper (ref below).
The authors estimated adult survival in the rufa population had declined
in recent years from 85% to 56%. This is very worrying, and should
have produced an ESA listing. But if you do the arithmetic - this is
well short of whats needed to produce extinction by 2010. And what the
authors actually say is more careful:
"However, if the 1997/1998-2000/2001 levels of annual survival
prevail, the population is predicted to approach extremely low numbers
by 2010 when the probability of extinction will be correspondingly
higher than it is today"
There are other reasons I had happily bet on the knots surviving without
an ESA listing. Politically the state level seems more important tan
federal and, at least as I read the news, there has been some action there
and more looks likely - which isn't surprising birds have considerable
political clout in the NE US.
But if anyone wants to bet on Calidris canutus rufa not seeing the end
of 2010, I'll happily take their money.
Andrew Taylor
"Rapid population decline in red knots: fitness consequences of decreased
refuelling rates and late arrival in Delaware Bay", Baker et al.,
Royal Society of London Proceedings: Biological Sciences Volume 271,
Number 1541 / April 22, 2004
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