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Hi Steve,
No you are not missing anything. (The same happens
with some raptors). Simplistic explanations in evolutionary biology do tend to
downplay the role of randomness. There is no guarantee that the first chick to hatch has the best genes. Only that all
other things being equal, better younger chicks may have better survival ability
in that regime (better able to survive in spite of the hardships) and better
older chicks may also have better survival ability in that regime (better able
to beat up younger siblings quicker). The advantage need not be absolute. A
minute proportional advantage is enough of a difference given the numbers
involved. Also better families may be able to provide a big enough nest and
enough food for all young to survive.
Philip
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