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http://assets.panda.org/downloads/birdandclimatechangereport.pdf
Bird Species and Climate Change: The Global Status Report
A synthesis of current scientific understanding of anthropogenic
climate change impacts on global bird species now, and projected future
effects.
14 Nov 2006
Climate Risk
Climate Risk Pty Ltd are specialist advisors to business and government
on risk, opportunity and adaptation to climate change.
Contents
Conclusive Summary 5
1. Introduction 11
1.1 Aims and methods 11
1.2 How the climate is changing 11
1.3 How climate change is already affecting biodiversity 12
1.3.1 Rate of warming a crucial factor 12
1.4 The current conservation status of birds 13
2. The ways in which climate change acts on birds 13
2.1 Changes in temperature 14
2.2 Changes in precipitation 14
2.3 Greater climatic extremes 15
2.4 Indirect effects of climate change 16
3. How climate change pushes birds out of ecological synchrony 17
3.1 Birds’ seasonal responses are shifting: Phenology 17
3.1.1 Egg laying dates 18
3.1.2 Migration timing 19
3.2 Climate change causes mismatch between behaviour and the
environment 21
3.2.1 The vulnerability of long-distance migrants 22
4. How climate change shifts ranges and disrupt communities 25
4.1 Climatically forced shifts in distribution 25
4.1.1 Human barriers to migration 25
4.1.2 Changes could undermine current conservation efforts 26
4.1.3 Distributional shifts already underway 27
4.1.4 Forecasts of distribution changes 29
4.2 How climate change will disrupt communities and ecosystems 33
4.2.1 How birds are already affected by disrupted communities 35
5. How climate change affects population dynamics 36
5.1 Climate change and birds’ reproductive success 37
5.1.1 A note about climate extremes 42
5.2 The effects of climate change on adult survival 42
6 Climate change and bird extinction 43
6.1 The scale of risk climate change poses to general biodiversity 44
6.1.1 Additional reasons for concern 46
6.2 Estimating the scale of extinction risk to birds 46
6.2.1 Regional case study: Extinction risk for European birds 47
6.2.2 Regional case study: Extinction risk for Mexican birds 51
6.2.3 Regional case study: Extinction risk for Australian birds 52
6.2.4 Regional case study: Extinction risk for South African birds 54
6.3 Bird groups most at risk of extinction from climate change 56
6.3.1 Migratory birds 56
6.3.2 Wetland birds 58
6.3.3 Coastal birds and seabirds 60
6.3.4. Mountain and island species 61
6.3.5 Antarctic birds 63
6.3.6 Arctic birds 65
7. References 68
Appendix A 74
Conclusive Summary
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