http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v441/n7089/full/nature04539.html
Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird
Christiaan Both, Sandra Bouwhuis, C. M. Lessells and Marcel E. Visser
Nature 441, 81-83 (4 May 2006) | doi:10.1038/nature04539;
Abstract
Phenological responses to climate change differ across trophic levels,
which may lead to birds failing to breed at the time of maximal food
abundance. Here we investigate the population consequences of such
mistiming in the migratory pied flycatcher, Ficedula hypoleuca. In a
comparison of nine Dutch populations, we find that populations have
declined by about 90% over the past two decades in areas where the food
for provisioning nestlings peaks early in the season and the birds are
currently mistimed. In areas with a late food peak, early-breeding
birds still breed at the right time, and there is, at most, a weak
population decline. If food phenology advances further, we also predict
population declines in areas with a late food peak, as in these areas
adjustment to an advanced food peak is insufficient. Mistiming as a
result of climate change is probably a widespread phenomenon, and here
we provide evidence that it can lead to population declines.
Laurie & Leanne Knight
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